Economists sound off on Trump’s tariff policies at 100-day mark

president Donald Trump For a second term for promises to lower prices, create jobs and to impose difficult tariffs in imports, especially from China.

When he described the “tariff man” last autumn, he told an audience in the Chicago Economic Club: “For me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary tariff is.” In his first months of office, however, it is unclear whether Trump can or should implement the hard mutual tariffs, which he announced in April against dozens of countries.

Now, 100 days after his second term, economists told Fox News Digital They do not see these proposed mutual tariffs as politically motivated, unnecessary and the advantages of US trading partners that Trump had hoped for.

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Instead, since they warned, Trump’s tariffs could grind billions of dollars of trading in trade in order to stop between the two largest economies in the world, to disturb the global supply chains and to risk the US economy into a large slump or recession.

When Trump took up his office, the probability of recession was “probably about 10%,” said Justin Wolfers, economist at the Michigan University, in an interview with FOX News Digital. “Now they are up to 55%.”

It is unclear whether Trump will continue to penetrate with these unpopular tariffs, which should take power at the beginning of July. Uncertainty and volatility remain in the short term.

Short -term tariff effects

Trump announced tariffs on April 2, which is referred to as the “liberation day”. The announcement included both a 10% universal basic tariff and plans to take larger tariffs on dozens of other countries, including China.

These new import taxes immediately sent the stock markets in free fall, which caused one of the largest one-day S&P 500 losses since the Second World War and prompted a deep and uncomfortable uncertainty about possible next steps.

“The only thing that happened, which has promoted the chances of recession so high and so quickly, is chaos from the White House,” said Wolfers.

Trump then paused the mutual tariffs for 90 days to encourage the administration, to make “business” with countries through the trade and to promote more investments in US production. Nevertheless, some prices have already increased in the expectation of higher costs as part of the new tariff regime.

Uncertainty has also played a role. Trump’s annoyance In April, a number of large container ships prompted their programs to be abruptly stopped to the USA at the beginning of this month and to turn back to their original ports. This means that more consumers see a price increase for everyday products that are already in certain big box retailers such as Walmart or Target next month.

These price hikes “will not appear tomorrow, but will appear in the next few months because the scarcity will develop and American retailers have to find other sources – that could take a while,” said David H. Feldman, economist and professor at William & Mary College.

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While Trump says that the tariffs are targeting foreign competitors and reduces the trade deficit, the costs are mainly due to American and bourgeois Americans who buy most of the imported goods.

Wolfers said Trump’s focus on trade “deficit” is based on a common misunderstanding.

“This means that we sell China a small amount of things and sell a large amount of things,” he said. For every dollar calculation that goes to China, however, the United States receives something for buying Americans, such as T-shirts.

“We have a dollar deficit – but we have a excess of things.”

Deescalation potential

There are only a few signs of it Trump’s tariffs will achieve the profits he was looking for, e.g. B. the onshoring of US production or securing better trade agreements, especially in Asian countries.

Instead, experts warn that these countries will probably deal with the US markets and the supply chains over time.

“If these tariffs remain able, there will hardly be a trade between the United States and China, “said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a leader at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The annual trade between the two countries of around $ 650 billion is at risk, together with the long-term effects on global trade.

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Trump’s tariffs also reject decades of international understanding that has depoliticized trade disputes, said Feldman.

The United States moves “from a system that was based, at least on mutually acceptable rules of conduct for a system that does not have as an anchor,” Feldman, whose research focuses on global trade policy, told Fox News Digital. This displacement enables the government to align foreign nations individually and to offer companies and industries a selective tariff easier “if they make our” commandments “, he argued.

“America is now the champion of the Shakedown.”

Next Steps

According to the market against the market, Trump seems to warm up the idea of ​​loosening its proposed 145% mutual tariffs in China who swore to impose retaliatory -alious measures.

Economists say that he will rather do this when the economy becomes acidic, or he sees a great decline in the number of poll numbers if the past is precedent.

Nevertheless, every path to de -escalation remains uncertain. Just last week, China denied Trump’s claim that the two countries had negotiated a collective agreement after he had claimed in an interview that he had reached “200 deals” for trade.

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“I am worried that the immediate effects of uncertainty on business investments in commercial industries, which leads to a recession,” said Feldman. “But it could get worse if it is converted into a financial panic. And when everyone begins to say: ‘My goodness, I have to get into gold and cash, I can’t be in treasury.’ If we switch to cash, all bets are eliminated.

If that happens, he said: “We could slide again in 2008 in 2008.”

Trump refused to admit that his early days were anything but a great success.

In a recent interview with Time MagazineHe emblazoned his first 100 days as “very successful” and said “people [are] The letter that it was the best first month and the best second month and really the best third month “for a US president.

He rejected the volatility of the stock markets and the increasing inflation as a temporary “market fluctuation” and described it as a “transition period” that would compensate for.

When asked whether he would see it as a victory if the tariffs in imports remain up to 50% in one year, Trump said he would do it.

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“Total victory,” he said.

“Everyone will benefit from it.”