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Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the proposal that reportedly came from President-elect Donald Trump’s team to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which will pass the four-year mark next February.
“Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals of representatives of the elected president’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years and to deploy a peacekeeping contingent of British and European forces in Ukraine,” Lavrov said in an interview with TASS , the official news agency of the Russian government.
Lavrov’s statement likely hints at the aggressive stance Russian President Vladimir Putin will take toward Trump over Ukraine. An agreement with Putin is likely to be almost impossible, even for a strong negotiator like Trump. Here’s why.
During his annual news conference last month, Putin all but ruled out striking a peace deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. When asked by a journalist whether he had any prerequisites for starting negotiations on Ukraine, Putin denied having any prerequisites. However, clarifying his answer, Putin said that Russia would “sign documents only with representatives of legitimate authorities.”
Putin’s ‘Fog of War’ Missile Confuses Experts, But That’s His Plan
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual year-end news conference and conference call, December 19, 2024, in Moscow. (Reuters/Maxim Shemetov)
He argued that Zelensky and his government were “illegitimate” and stated that “the Constitution of Ukraine does not contain provisions for extending presidential authority even in times of war.” Zelensky’s term actually expired on May 20. “You know, if someone runs for elections and gains legitimacy, we will talk to every person, including Zelensky,” Putin added.
Putin, a lawyer by profession, claimed that only the Verkhovna Rada, the unicameral parliament, exists of Ukraine and its leader Ruslan Stefanchuk were “legitimate” since the Constitution of Ukraine allowed for the expansion of the Rada’s powers during the war. However, the Rada and its leader are “totally under the leadership of the regime,” he claimed, likely referring to the fact that Zelensky’s Servant of the People party controls the majority in the body after the 2019 parliamentary elections. Putin argues that the illegitimacy of Zelensky, who is technically above Stefanchuk, makes the Rada and its decisions illegitimate.
Putin also ruled out a ceasefire at his press conference. A Russian journalist asked whether it was “feasible” to “just call for a ceasefire at any moment” to “stop the war,” referring to Trump and his retired Russia-Ukraine envoy Lt. Gen. Keith Kelloggwho, in his opinion, spoke about ending the war before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.
Comrades carry the coffin of 48-year-old Petro Velykiy, who was killed in a battle with Russian troops in Russia’s Kursk region, on Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024, during a farewell ceremony at the Music and Drama Theater in Chernyhiv, Ukraine. (AP Photo/Dan Bashakov)
Putin replied: “To suspend.” [combat operations] for a week – it means giving the opponent the opportunity to gain a foothold in their positions. To give him the opportunity to rest, stock up on the necessary military equipment and ammunition. . . Putin then claimed that “a relatively long ceasefire will allow the enemy to train and retrain,” and advocated for maintaining momentum as Russian forces deplete “weapons systems, ammunition, munitions and, most importantly.” Ukrainian military personnel.”
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Putin is confident that he can continue until Ukraine surrenders or until the deal is concluded on Russia’s terms, which are unacceptable to Washington and, most likely, even to Trump’s team. Putin wants to keep 20% of Ukraine’s territory and Crimea, obtain legal guarantees that Ukraine will become a neutral state with no prospect of NATO membership, have U.S. and Western sanctions against Russia lifted, and annexed territories declared Russian by the West be recognized.
Putin is confident that he can also negotiate hard with Trump. From the standpoint of combat potential – weapons, troops, defense economics and military-industrial production capacity – Russia, which the Pentagon itself considers a “near equal competitor” of the US military, has an overwhelming strategic advantage over Ukraine. Since Russia’s population is three times larger than Ukraine’s, Moscow is also massively advantaged when it comes to labor.
Former President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Trump Tower in New York City on Friday, September 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
Putin has continuously mobilized additional forces in this conflict, including through covert means. Russia has already fielded a military force 15% larger than at the start of the war. In September, Putin issued a decree ordering a further increase in the Russian armed forces by 180,000 soldiers. The Russian military currently numbers 2.38 million people, of which 1.5 million are active soldiers. Putin has shown he can draw personnel from his allies by adding 11,000 North Korean troops to Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
Putin even mocked Trump’s team, albeit indirectly. The Russian dictator challenged Washington to a “high-tech duel of the 21st century” to test US air defense and missile defense systems the Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missilewhich would target Kiev. “We are ready for such an experiment. But is the other side ready? Let’s organize such an experiment, such a technology duel and see what happens. I think it would be useful for us and the American side.”
Putin signaled that Trump would first have to contact him to begin talks. When asked by an NBC journalist when Putin would meet with Trump and what concessions he would make given that he “will be a weaker leader,” Putin replied: “First of all, I don’t know when he and I. “I will meet, because he doesn’t say anything about it. I haven’t spoken to him in over four years. Putin added that he was “ready” to talk to Trump “at any time” if he wanted to.
Ukrainian forces fight during military operations in the Kursk Region in Malaya Loknya, Kursk Region, Russia, in this screenshot from a handout video released on August 20, 2024. (Air Assault Brigade/Handout via REUTERS)
Putin denied that he would be in a weaker position, saying he had a “different point of view.” He explained: “I believe that Russia has become much stronger in the last two to three years. Why? Because we are truly evolving as a sovereign nation. We are not dependent on many. In fact, in anticipation of and following the West’s sanctions against Moscow in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin sanctioned the Russian economy and reduced its dependence on foreign, particularly Western, technology.
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Putin’s actions included introducing an import substitution program across Russia’s manufacturing industry to boost domestic production, de-dollarizing Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves, spearheading BRICS, and an initiative to replace the U.S. dollar with an alternative currency, the main currency of the country international exchange and strengthening economic and military ties with non-Western countries, both US allies such as India and adversaries such as China, Iran and North Korea.
Given that Putin will almost certainly take tough action and that US influence over Russia – unlike China, for example – is limited – Team Trump will have to look for creative solutions if the master of “The Art of the Deal” wants to keep his election promise to bring peace to Ukraine.
