Analysis: Syrian Kurdish groups are falling behind as the balance of power shifts. From Reuters

By Orhan Qereman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrukcu

QAMISHLI, Syria/BEIRUT/ANKARA (Reuters) – As hostile Turkish-backed groups mobilize against them in northern Syria and Damascus is ruled by a group friendly to Ankara, Syria’s main Kurdish factions are falling behind in securing their support to preserve political achievements during 13 years of war.

As part of a stateless ethnic group spanning Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, the Kurds have been among the few winners of the Syrian conflict so far. They control nearly a quarter of the country and lead a powerful armed group that is a key U.S. ally in the fight against the Islamic State.

But since the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) invaded Damascus this month and toppled President Bashar al-Assad, the balance of power has shifted against it, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat told Reuters.

The seismic shift in Syria is expected to increase Turkish influence, while a change in the US administration raises questions about how long Washington will continue to support the country’s Kurdish-led forces.

For Turkey, the Kurdish factions pose a national security threat. Ankara sees them as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 and is classified as a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and other powers .

The Syrian Kurdish groups “are in big trouble,” said Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, a U.S.-based think tank.

“The balance in Syria has fundamentally shifted in favor of Turkey-backed or Turkey-aligned factions, and Turkey appears determined to take full advantage of this.”

The shift was reflected in renewed fighting for control of the north, where Turkish-backed armed groups known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) have made military advances against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Fanar al-Kait, a senior official in the Kurdish-run regional administration, told Reuters that the overthrow of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Party oppressed the Kurds for decades, represented a chance to piece together the fragmented country.

He said the government was ready for dialogue with Turkey, but the conflict in the north showed that Ankara had “very bad intentions.”

“This will certainly push the region towards… a new conflict,” he added.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday he expected foreign states to withdraw support for Kurdish fighters following Assad’s ouster, as Ankara seeks to isolate the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia that led the SDF alliance.

Responding to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official said the main cause of the conflict was “not Turkey’s attitude towards the region; but the fact that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organization.”

“The PKK/YPG elements must lay down their weapons and leave Syria,” the official said.

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi confirmed for the first time the presence of PKK fighters in Syria in a Reuters interview on Thursday, saying they had helped in the fight against Islamic State and would return home if a full ceasefire was agreed with Turkey would. He denied any organizational connection to the PKK.

FEMINISM AND ISLAMISM

Meanwhile, the new leadership in Damascus is showing warmth toward Ankara and hinting that it wants to bring all of Syria back under central authority – a potential challenge to the decentralization favored by the Kurds.

While Turkey directly supports the SNA, it, along with other states, considers HTS a terrorist group due to its al-Qaeda past.

Nevertheless, Ankara is believed to have significant influence over the group. A senior Western diplomat said: “The Turks can clearly influence them more than anyone else.”

HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa told a Turkish newspaper that Assad’s overthrow was “the victory not only of the Syrian people but also of the Turkish people.”

The Turkish official said HTS is not under Ankara’s control and has never been, calling it a structure “with which we communicated due to the circumstances” and adding that many Western states were doing the same.

Syrian Kurdish groups led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the affiliated YPG militia seized control of much of the north after the uprising against Assad began in 2011. They set up their own administration, but insisted that their goal was autonomy, not independence.

Their politics, which emphasize socialism and feminism, are very different from the Islamism of the HTS.

Their territory grew as U.S.-led forces collaborated with the SDF in the campaign against the Islamic State and captured Arab-majority areas.

The Turkish-backed SNA groups stepped up their campaign against the SDF when Assad was overthrown, capturing the city of Manbij on December 9

Washington brokered a ceasefire, but the SDF said Turkey and its allies had not adhered to it, and a Turkish defense ministry official said there was no such deal.

US support for the SDF caused tensions with its NATO ally Türkiye. Washington views the SDF as an important partner in the fight against the Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken says will seek to use this time to restore its capabilities in Syria. The SDF still guards tens of thousands of prisoners linked to the militant group.

Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler said last weekend that Turkey sees no signs of a resurgence of the Islamic State in Syria. On Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told his German counterpart during talks in Ankara that alternatives needed to be found for managing the camps and prisons where detainees are being held.

Separately, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to find “an orderly transition regarding the SDF’s role in this part of the country.”

President Joe Biden’s administration has said U.S. troops will remain in Syria, but President-elect Donald Trump could withdraw them when he takes office on January 20.

LETTER TO TRUMP

During his first term, Trump tried to withdraw from Syria but faced pressure at home and from U.S. allies.

In a Dec. 17 letter to Trump reviewed by Reuters, top Syrian Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed said Turkey was preparing for an invasion of the northeast before he took office.

Türkiye’s plan “threatens to undo years of progress in securing stability and combating terrorism,” she wrote. “We believe you have the power to prevent this catastrophe.”

Trump’s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump said on December 16 that Turkey “holds the key to what is happening in Syria,” but did not announce his plans for stationing U.S. forces there.

“The Kurds are in an unenviable position,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. “Once Damascus consolidates its power, it will move forward in the region. The US can’t stay there forever.”

HTS leader Sharaa told Britain’s BBC that the Kurds are “part of our people” and “there should be no division of Syria” and that adding weapons should be entirely in the hands of the state.

Sharaa acknowledged one of Turkey’s main concerns – the presence of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria – and said: “We do not accept that Syrian areas threaten and destabilize Turkey or other places.”

He pledged to work toward a “peaceful solution to the problem” through dialogue and negotiations and said he believed initial contacts had been made “between the Kurds in northeastern Syria or the SDF organization.”

Kait, the Kurdish official, said his government wants “a democratic Syria, a decentralized Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all denominations, religions and ethnicities,” describing these as red lines. The SDF would be “a core of the coming Syrian army,” he added.

SDF commander Abdi confirmed in his Reuters interview that contact had been made with HTS to avoid clashes between their forces, but said Ankara would try to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Kurdish-led government.

Still, he said there was strong support from international parties, including the U.S.-led coalition, for the SDF to enter “the new political phase” in Damascus, calling it “a great opportunity.”

“We are preparing to join this phase after a complete ceasefire between us and between Turkey and affiliated factions,” he said.

(Orhan Qereman reported from Qamishli, Syria, Tom Perry from Beirut and Tuvan Gumrukcu from Ankara; Additional reporting by John Irish in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and Daren Butler in Istanbul; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Alexandra Zavis)