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The UN climate conference COP30 begins on November 6th with a summit of world leaders and runs until November 21st Climate crisis and the need for accelerated and collective climate action.” However, Microsoft founder Bill Gates just issued a memo to COP30 participants proposing a fundamental change in priorities: focusing on poverty reduction rather than climate change.
Gates, who had previously highlighted measures to reduce short-term emissions, was criticized for arguing that “a metric should be even more important than emissions and temperature changes.” [is] Improve lives. Our main goal should be to prevent suffering, especially for those living in the harshest conditions in the world’s poorest countries.”
His argument is based on three central premises: climate change presents serious challenges but does not pose an existential threat to civilization; Temperature metrics alone do not adequately measure climate-related progress; and improved health and economic prosperity provide the most effective protection against climate change.
Gates provides data showing that achieving net-zero emissions would result in a temperature increase of 1.9 degrees Celsius over 1990 levels, while inaction would result in a rise of 2.9 degrees. This one-degree difference suggests, in his view, that the resources allocated to net-zero targets could deliver greater humanitarian benefits if redirected towards them Energy access and disease prevention.
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Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates surprised social media users when he wrote that climate change does not represent a doomsday scenario for the Earth. (Sean Gallup/Getty)
The connection between energy consumption and economic prosperity is striking. Countries with an annual per capita income of less than $1,145 use about 1,100 kilowatts per person annually, while countries with a per capita income of more than $14,005 use 55,000 kilowatts per person annually, according to data cited by Gates.
The real inequality, according to Gates, lies in the inequalities in human development. A child born in South Sudan faces a 39 times higher risk of mortality before the age of five than a Swedish child. These vulnerable populations need improved access to energy, nutrition and Health infrastructure.
The connection between economic development and energy consumption is clear: no country has achieved high per capita income with low per capita energy consumption, and conversely, no country has high energy consumption with persistent poverty.
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Improved energy access enables improved living standards through increased productivity, agricultural progress and household consumption, thereby reducing dependence on subsistence agriculture. The availability of energy either provides farmers with modern agricultural technologies or enables economic mobility to pursue alternative livelihoods.
Energy-rich countries benefit from superior health infrastructure and water sanitation systems, resulting in lower maternal and child mortality and greater capacity for environmental protection.
The destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica illustrates how natural disasters cause disproportionate damage to developing countries compared to wealthy countries due to inequalities in energy infrastructure, resilient construction and recovery capacities. To address these inequalities, affordable access to energy is critical.
Energy poverty in many African and Latin American countries is driving migration pressure as residents in fossil fuel-rich regions, particularly in Europe and North America, seek higher living standards.
To support emerging economies and ease migration pressure, Mr. President Donald Trump has lifted restrictions on loans to developing countries for fossil fuel energy projects. Financial institutions are no longer forced to exclusively finance renewable energy initiatives.
Climate demonstrators protest outside the Royal Courts of Justice, Strand, in London, England, on February 20, 2024. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)
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The 140th Private banks of 44 countries that took part in the United Nations’ Net Zero Banking Alliance – including Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and Sumitomo – have suspended their commitments to restrict fossil fuel financing. The World Bank, which has historically discouraged lending for fossil fuels and nuclear energy while prioritizing renewable energy, may reconsider its position.
This policy shift enables developing countries to secure financing for conventional power plants, transmission infrastructure, distribution networks and household connections. What is important is that this change decreases China’s strategic advantage in lending to African and Latin American countries – often by securing ports and other assets as collateral.
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Gates’ about-face on the climate debate challenges the international community to confront an uncomfortable reality. While climate conferences take place in developed countries with reliable electricity and healthcare systems, billions of people lack access to the energy that makes such gatherings possible.
His argument suggests that the most effective climate strategy may be to ensure that vulnerable populations have the resources to adapt and thrive, rather than pursuing emissions targets that may perpetuate the very poverty that exacerbates climate vulnerability. Whether policymakers at COP30 will heed this message remains uncertain, but Gates has succeeded in reframing the discussion and focusing on what climate action should ultimately serve: economic progress, not just atmospheric goals.
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