Israel’s Netanyahu looks to Iran after triumphs over Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria By Reuters

By Samia Nakhoul

DUBAI (Reuters) – 2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his country’s arch-enemy Iran.

The veteran Israeli leader will consolidate his strategic goals: strengthening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and capitalizing on the dismantling of Tehran’s allies – the Palestinian Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Assad’s collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the destruction of their military structure mark a series of monumental victories for Netanyahu.

Without Syria, the alliances that Tehran has nurtured for decades have fallen apart. As Iran’s influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region.

Netanyahu is poised to focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile program and is unrelentingly focused on reducing and neutralizing these strategic threats to Israel.

According to Middle East observers, Iran faces a difficult decision: either continue its nuclear enrichment program or curb its nuclear activities and agree to negotiations.

“Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack, particularly against its nuclear program,” said Joost R. Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa program director for the International Crisis Group. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel did it, but that won’t get rid of Iran.”

“If they (the Iranians) don’t give in, Trump and Netanyahu could strike, as there is nothing they can stop now,” Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib said, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, which has shown pragmatism in the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation.

Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 deal between Iran and six world powers that was aimed at reining in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, is likely to tighten sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, despite critics who believe diplomacy is more effective in the long term Politicians are demanding a return to negotiations.

DEFINING LEGACY

Amid unrest in Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a crucial role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the Gaza war broke out in 2023, Netanyahu took a stand in a trial that has bitterly divided Israelis.

As 2024 draws to a close, the Israeli prime minister is likely to agree to a ceasefire agreement with Hamas to end the 14-month Gaza war and release Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources close to the negotiations.

But Gaza would remain under Israeli military control absent a postwar U.S. plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states showed little inclination to pressure Israel into a compromise or to push the crumbling Palestinian Authority to overhaul its leadership and take power.

“Israel will remain militarily in Gaza for the foreseeable future, as any withdrawal risks a reorganization of Hamas. Israel believes that the only way to maintain military gains is to remain in Gaza,” Khatib told Reuters.

For Netanyahu, such an outcome would represent a strategic victory and cement a status quo consistent with his vision: preventing Palestinian statehood while ensuring Israel’s long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem – areas recognized internationally as an integral part of one State recognized are future Palestinian state.

The Gaza war broke out when Hamas militants stormed Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures. Israel responded with an air and land offensive that killed 45,000 people, displaced 1.2 million and left much of the enclave in ruins, according to health authorities there.

While the ceasefire deal would mean an immediate end to hostilities in the Gaza Strip, it would not address the deeper, decades-long Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Arab and Western officials say.

On the ground, the prospects of a Palestinian state, an option repeatedly ruled out by Netanyahu’s government, have become increasingly unattainable, and Israeli settler leaders are optimistic that Trump will align closely with their views.

A rise in settler violence and the settler movement’s growing confidence – highway billboards in some areas of the West Bank carry the message in Arabic: “No future in Palestine” – reflect growing pressure on Palestinians.

Even if the Trump administration were to push for an end to the conflict, “any solution would be on Israel’s terms,” said Crisis Group’s Hiltermann.

“It’s over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there,” he said.

During Trump’s previous term, Netanyahu secured several diplomatic victories, including the “Deal of the Century,” a U.S.-backed peace plan that Trump put forward in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

If implemented, the plan will mark a dramatic shift in U.S. policy and international agreements, openly aligning itself with Israel and departing sharply from a long-standing “land for peace” framework that has guided negotiations in the past has directed.

It would allow Israel to annex vast swaths of land in the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It would also recognize Jerusalem as the “undivided capital of Israel,” effectively rejecting Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as its capital, central to its statehood goals and in line with UN resolutions.

Syria at a crucial crossroads

Across the Israeli border, Syria is at a critical juncture following the overthrow of Assad by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani.

Golani now faces the monumental task of consolidating control over a fractured Syria in which the military and police have collapsed. HTS must rebuild from the ground up, secure borders and maintain internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime and other adversaries.

The biggest fear among Syrians and observers alike is that HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda but now presenting itself as a Syrian nationalist force to gain legitimacy, will revert to a rigid Islamist ideology.

The group’s ability – or failure – to find that balance will shape the future of Syria, which is home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze and Christians.

“If they succeed in this (Syrian nationalism), there is hope for Syria, but if they return to their comfort zone of quite strongly ideological Islamism, then there will be divisions in Syria,” Hiltermann said.

“There could be chaos and a weak Syria for a long time, like we saw in Libya and Iraq.”