New Jersey and Virginia governor races much tighter than expected

The Democrats are running for governor New Jersey and Virginia should win easily.

And yet the races are closer than forecasters expected. Here’s why.

Mikey Sherrilla former naval officer and former prosecutor, as well as a sitting congresswoman, should beat up Jack Ciattarelli, a former congressman who has run twice and lost.

Since I began my career at a newspaper in New Jersey, I can tell you that the Garden State has never been more quintessentially blue than it is now.

SHERRILL GIVES ALL BACK WITH OBAMA SUPPORT, STAR-STARTED CAMPAIGN IN NEW JERSEY AS THE RACE GETS WIDER

One problem Sherrill faces is that outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy is deeply unpopular and voters tend not to reward the ruling party when they are upset.

And then there’s the Trump factor, which hangs like a storm cloud over Tuesday’s races.

While Ciattarelli called Trump a “charlatan” in 2015, they have since reconciled and the president has endorsed him. In 2012, he voted against a bill to legalize same-sex marriage, but has since changed his position.

Sherrill is doing everything she can to swing the election over Trump. She lashes out at the president, knowing full well that Ciattarelli can’t distance herself from the Trump agenda on any issue without potentially incurring his ire.

Additionally, Trump canceled a $16 billion tunnel between New Jersey and New York. This is poison for commuters in North Jersey.

Add to that a month-long government shutdown and the weekend suspension of SNAP food benefits, and you have a perfect storm for Sherrill.

But with Ciattarelli campaigning in minority communities, it won’t be a walk in the park.

TRUMP STUTTS FOR THE ENTIRE VIRGINIA GOP TICKET WHILE EARLE-SEARS STILL FORMALLY SUPPORTS

In Virginia, Representative Abigail Spanbergera former CIA officer, would normally edge out Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, the first black woman to win a statewide race. Trump did not support her.

But Spanberger showed a clear lack of courage, and that hurt her.

The Democrat running for attorney general, Jay Jones, is widely viewed as a disgrace. He texted a colleague that he had “two bullets” for then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert. Oh, and he would like to see his children die.

Spanberger could have insisted that he withdraw from the race, that was absolutely appalling behavior. But she didn’t. She still supports Jay Jones. This made her look like another self-serving political hack.

The press largely ignored Spanberger and made it a one- or two-day story before moving on. But Earle Searsa combat veteran, has spent most of her advertising budget on this one issue while simultaneously hyping trans women in the men’s sports controversy.

Spanberger takes on the Trump economy to highlight the issue of affordability in the commonwealth. She calls the Trump tariffs a “massive tax increase on Virginians.”

Virginia isn’t as blue as New Jersey, but the northern suburbs certainly are, a place where countless federal workers have been laid off or not paid during the shutdown.

Spanberger is trying to convert some Trump voters in rural areas. But as former Sen. Joe Manchin told Politico, “If your name has a ‘D’ in rural America – grassroots, rural, religious America – they’re going to lose no matter how they try to switch.”

Spanberger is still on track to win by double digits in a state won by Kamala Harris – so she appears to have weathered the storm.

NEW POLL ON MOST IMPORTANT SHOWDOWN FOR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR REPORTS SINGLE DIGIT RACE

Trump, who preoccupies himself with foreign travel and war brokering, has paid little attention to this week’s election, at least publicly. He didn’t personally advocate for anyone in the final stretch. It’s as if he knows he has a losing hand – likely losses in left-leaning states – and doesn’t want to be associated with the outcome.

Barack Obamathe de facto champion of the leaderless Democrats, campaigned for Spanberger and Sherrill on Saturday.

That brings us to this New York City and its toxic, melting, heavily ethnic and hard-edged politics.

Trump plays a role here by constantly denouncing Zohran Mamdani, the leading candidate and the city’s first Muslim mayor, as a “communist.”

The Republicans are already running against the self-proclaimed socialist Mamdani. It is a gift from the political gods. They make him the face of the Democratic Party.

Andrew Cuomowho learned politics from his father Mario, was overtaken by Mamdani when I first met him. The polls are suddenly tightening, but the charismatic Mamdani is still likely to win, especially because Republican Curtis Sliwa, the former Guardian Angel who has no chance, refuses to drop out.

The hard-edged Cuomo is hardly an ideal candidate. He was forced to resign as governor four years ago after a spate of sexual harassment allegations, which he denies.

SUBSCRIBE TO HOWIE’S MEDIA BUZZMETER PODCAST, A RIFF OF THE DAY’S HOTTEST STORIES

Hakeem Jeffries ultimately gave Mamdani a cautious endorsement, although he does not recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, because he is the expected winner. If that happens, Mamdani will be unable to deliver on most of his promises of free goods and services because he will need help from Albany and other power centers.

And that will be hung around the neck of every Democrat running in places far less liberal than the five boroughs. The Republicans will ensure that Mamdani is the most famous Democrat in the country, the symbol, whether justified or not, of a far-left party.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Off-year elections are typically a snooze and test voter turnout when the incumbent president is not on the ballot. But this one has more twists and turns than the LA Dodgers persevere by their fingernails to beat the Toronto Blue Jays.