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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
First we had the “red wall”, then the “blue wall” and now the “turquoise wall” -the only Nigel Farage promises to maintain for its reform -uk party in traditional work areas. The election turbulence in Great Britain is characterized by analysts that reduce the political map. But these broad brush descriptions hide the complexity – and the challenge for the work of promoting voters that are willing to change loyalty. It also throws up fascinating political dilemma.
The local elections on Thursday could already increase high jitter. As many of the voters who supported the work in the general elections in July, have cooled down to the party that wide energies are considered that they can attribute them – especially those that are attacked by reform UK.
However, these “reformatic” voters could be difficult to keep without warding off others. And it is still a challenge when some of the Croder stereotypes suggest. A purely “Faragist” agenda is not according to her taste – according to Steve Akehurst at the research initiative PursionaSion UK, which has commissioned surveys and focus groups to find out what makes it tick.
The concern about immigration is the main problem that prioritized or actively alternates both from Farage’s core supporters as well as from the former Labor voters – especially small boats and asylum hotels. Although this confirms that Downing Street is right to worry about reform attacks on the agenda, the research of acidst is showing significant differences to other topics.
Labor Waverer showed, for example, a minimal interest in the reform’s attacks on the net zero goal -even if they were asked about the increasing energy costs. While 63 percent of those who voted a reform in 2024 were against NET zero, 60 percent of the reformatratical working voters were in favor of the survey.
Approach is a risk of turning even more from Labor’s win of the 2024 coalition from Labor. It marks a finding that explodes a number of stereotypes of the red wall: three to four times as many Labor voters in these parts of the Midlands and Northland are at risk of being classified as a reform-Kurious by the centric lib-Dem-Dems (the greens are on the rise in other places).
Research has worked among these voters in other aspects of the reform. They like Farage, but may not like his friendship with the US President Donald Trump and his attitude towards Ukraine and they wonder whether his party is completely respectable. “In focus groups, people in their own heads struggle whether the reform is okay or a bit extreme,” says Akehurst. 16 percent worry about racist under tones.
With regard to the MPs of the workers, there are also signs of the data of persuasion (see diagram) that the tactical anti-Far vote could increase support for your party: Enough voters in areas with red wall could decide to expressly support the incumbent incumbent in order to keep reforms out of it.
Since some argue for a pitch on reform -oriented voters that have (somewhat strange) referred to as “hard work”, these findings contain timely warning. The left flank of the party is bubbling with dissatisfaction, but is attracted to Westminster less attention, since MPs and apparatuschiks are obsessed with Farage. It is possible to keep these angry voters happy and at the same time address the reform landscape, but it requires a careful political mix. Both groups seem to be attracted from a traditional work distance to support public services, which are financed by taxation (this does not apply to the core support of the reform – see diagram).
Unfortunately, for a government whose expenditure options are so limited, there is still one thing that have common Labor’s left flank and those who are attempted by reforms together: they are rejected by everything that resembles austerity measures. And that’s the real dilemma of Labor.
